Last year’s hurricane season was especially severe and dangerous, resulting in 15 major storms, including eight hurricanes. How will the 2019 hurricane season compare? Read on to learn about how many hurricanes are forecasted for the 2019 hurricane season, which regions might be most affected, and why.
The Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1 and ends around Nov. 30. A “hurricane” is defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration as a tropical cyclone including 74-mph winds.
The 2019 hurricane season, according to meteorologists, will be slightly more typical and less severe than last year’s. Around 14 named major storms are expected, including three major hurricanes and seven hurricanes overall.
The northwest Atlantic ocean waters are the best and clearest predictor of the severity of a given hurricane season. When waters are warmer, hurricanes are likelier to occur. Climate change is part of the reason for the increased likelihood of hurricanes. This year’s water temperature is around the same as last year’s.
But one differentiating factor is the El Niño effect, which causes Pacific ocean waters to be warmer every several years. In 2019, this effect will be weaker, which will likely make for slightly less devastation caused by hurricanes.
An average number of hurricanes in a given season is six, with three of them being major (defined as a category 3 to 5 based on measured wind speeds), and 12 named storms overall. Given the average, hurricane season in 2019 will be around average, and slightly less severe than in 2018. Meteorologists at Colorado State University and the Weather Company make yearly hurricane forecasts, and this year’s CSU forecast expects a slightly less severe hurricane season than the Weather Company’s.
Hurricane Maria, Irma, Harvey, Florence, and Michael caused major damage and destruction in 2018, so meteorologists were anxious to see different numbers in this year’s forecast. More information will be available about the expected Atlantic landfall at the end of May and in early June, which will give a clearer picture of the dangers of the impending season.
