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Over a dozen updated projections by a number of agencies are forecasting an above average in possibly even extremely active hurricane season according to weather experts.
Experts are predicting the possibility of an extremely active hurricane season, with the potential of more than nine hurricanes this year. While not all experts agree on an extremely active season, most predictions so far foresee an above-average season, exceeding the average of 6 hurricanes.
So far, roughly 13 research groups have submitted their forecasts to the repository for seasonal hurricane predictions, a joint venture by the Barcelona supercomputing Center and Colorado State University.
So far, the prediction, based on the amalgamation of accumulated data from the various research groups, is at eight hurricanes for the 2020 hurricane season.
“In general, the consensus between seasonal hurricane forecasts this year is greater than it has been the past few years,” said research scientist Phil Klotzbach, from the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University.
On May 21, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will release its official hurricane forecast for the 2020 hurricane season.
The Atlantic basin hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and continues through November 30. The season reaches its peak between mid-August and late October. However, strong and deadly hurricanes can occur anytime within the hurricane season.
Record keeping for hurricanes began in 1850. According to averages for the Atlantic hurricane season posted on Wikipedia, the average number of hurricanes in August is 1.5, in September 2.5, and slightly over 1 for October.
According to the National Hurricane Center, the average number of hurricanes between 1966-2009 is 6.2 per season. The average number of hurricanes at category 3 or greater is 2.3. Including tropical storms, the average number of named systems is 11.3 per season.
The US government is already spending trillions of dollars to bail out citizens and businesses with income loss due to the coronavirus pandemic. An active hurricane season could stretch the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), already stressed with managing the coronavirus crisis, beyond its limits.
An estimate of the total cost of damage and economic loss from the 2019 hurricane season in the United States was roughly $22 billion, according to an estimate by AccuWeather.
The number one thought on the minds of so many Americans right now is “I need a job.” A devastating hurricane could once again put a large number of Americans out of work again or even devastate industries that are trying to regain footing as they emerge out of coronavirus lockdowns.
In 2019, the hurricane season resulted in significant job and wage losses, as well as farm and crop devastation. Infrastructure was damaged, drinking water wells were contaminated. Homes and businesses were damaged, not to mention the loss of contents and vehicles.
Hurricane season can also create health effects, some that can be lingering and have a long-term impact.
