The U.S. is in hurricane season, and a reduction in commercial airline flights due to the pandemic has significantly impacted the ability to accurately forecast the weather.
A study by Dr. Ying Chen found that the “accuracy of surface meteorology forecast in March-May 2020 decreases remarkably” as flight density drops.
The research looked at weather forecasts from March of this year and compared them to actual observed weather in the same time frame.
Chen noted that it is the temperature forecast that they are having issues with accuracy. Patterns of hot and cold air are critical in hurricane formation and prediction. If temperatures are not accurate, it could be difficult to identify hotspots early on.
The computer models that meteorologists use to help forecast hurricanes are only as good as the data provided to them.
The data comes from different tools, such as aircraft, cruise ships, satellites, buoys, weather balloons, ground stations, and radar. The pandemic has greatly reduced the amount of data coming from aircraft and cruises.
Chen said the “worsening of weather forecasts may be expected and the error could become larger for longer-term forecasts.”
This could handicap early warnings of extreme weather.
