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November isn’t exactly known for its strong hurricanes, but Tropical Storm Sebastien is on track to become a full-blown cyclone. Later today and into Friday, the storm could progress into becoming a hurricane as it pulls warm, moist air up from the ocean. Here’s what we know so far.
Current models show Sebastien as staying out to sea and not threatening any landmasses. Thankfully, the storm, which is 350 miles northwest of the Leeward Islands, is moving along a northwesterly path out into the open ocean. As such, it will likely not come into contact with any land. Barring a particularly unlikely surge into Europe, the storm should die out at sea.
However, the fact that the storm is capable of becoming a hurricane at all this late in the year is noteworthy. Only six tropical storms have progressed to become hurricanes after November 20 since 1966, when satellites began being used to track tropical storms. That averages out to roughly one late-season storm every six to seven years.
The last storm to successfully form after November 20 and still make landfall in the US was Kate in 1985. Hurricane Kate impacted the shore of Mexico Beach, Florida on November 21, 1985. It was a bit of an anomaly, as most of these late-season storms tend to form further out in the Atlantic and typically pose no threat to landmasses.
So what, right? A late-season tropical storm becomes a cyclone out in the middle of the Atlantic, hurts no one and then dies at sea. That shouldn’t be a big deal, right? Well, here’s the thing. This year alone has seen eighteen distinct named storms out over the Atlantic. That’s a record that is only matched by 2012 in recent years.
In short, it’s likely that we’re seeing evidence of a growing trend of storm activity. After all, the last late-season, post-November 20 hurricane was only in 2016, a short three years ago. That cuts the average time between these late storms in half. While this isn’t exactly indicative of a pattern by itself, it should cause people to take notice.
