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Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are watching a tropical wave that they are giving an 80% chance of developing into a depression or tropical storm within 48 hours and 90% chance within the next 5 days.
A large tropical wave between Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers and storms and is being closely monitored by forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) who say that slow development is likely over the next few days.
Currently, forecasters predict the system has an 80 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next 2 days, and a 90 percent chance within the next 5 days.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has labeled the tropical wave as “disturbance 1” and the National Weather Service office in Miami has rated its formation chance as “high.”
The latest tropical weather outlook text from the NHC says: “Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located a little more than 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands has become a little less organized since last night. However, environmental conditions are still expected to become more favorable for development in a day or two and a tropical depression or
tropical storm will likely form within the next couple of days. The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and could begin to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday or Wednesday night. Interests on those islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
As of 8 AM on Monday, the storm was located slightly over 1,000 miles east of the Windward Islands. As the storm continues to move westward, environmental conditions are likely to become more favorable for development into a depression or tropical storm.
The computer models are likely to change significantly from day to day. So it’s a good idea to keep checking with cellphones this week to stay up on the latest developments.
The wave is currently on a track that forecast models predict, should development into a depression or storm occur, puts it in line with passing over or near Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, then veering Northeast into the Atlantic near the Bahamas. It is still too early to predict whether the storm could impact the United States.
